Preview: Showdown in Chicago

Game 3 Preview
DALLAS COWBOYS (2-0, 1ST NFC EAST) AT CHICAGO BEARS (1-1, T-3RD NFC NORTH)

OVERVIEW: Last year, while the Cowboys were licking their wounds from a first round exit from the playoffs, the Bears were licking their chops heading into the Super Bowl. They were promptly exposed and decimated by the Colts. One could say that since then, the teams have gone in different directions a bit. Two wins by Dallas have them at 7-3 over their last 10 regular season games, while Chicago has lost 2 of 3. Okay, that’s not quite fair because Chicago still won 13 games last regular season and made it to the Super Bowl. They’re still loaded on defense and Devin Hester is the most dangerous player in the NFL. There’s a reason this is a Monday night game. Everyone is watching this game to see if Dallas is the team to beat in the NFC or if Chicago has gotten things back on track. The winner of this game gets automatic respect around the league.

QUARTERBACK: When a new QB comes into the game, he is often slow to get respect around the league and quick to be liked by his team’s faithful if he plays well. This is certainly the case with Romo. His gaudy numbers (119.3 Passer Rating and 6 TDs to 1 INT through two games) are unquestionable, and with two straight wins he has run his record to 8-4 as a starter. He is the complete package, with a good arm, good running ability, and an uncanny knack to make things happen. With 7 sacks and 2 INTs, the Chicago D is going to put constant pressure on Tony Romo, so it will be interesting to see if the O-Line can stay firm.
Tony Romo 18 completions, 211 yards, 2 TD, 0.75 (25% chance of two) INT

RUNNING BACK: Okay, so why isn’t Marion Barber starting? I have my own answers, but Barber is clearly outperforming Julius Jones at this point. And actually the duo is still putting up good numbers, propelling the running game to 154 yards per game. Meanwhile, Chicago has arguably the best run defense in the game, holding opposing teams to 73.5 yards per game and just 2.5 per carry. It could be that the running of JJ and MB vs. the Chicago defense is the most important battle of the game. Food for thought: In his only game against Chicago, Julius Jones rushed 33 times for 150 yards and 2 scores.
Julius Jones: 18 carries, 71 yards, 0.7 TD as well as 1 reception for 8 yards
Marion Barber: 13 carries, 66 yards, and 0.9 TD along with 1.7 receptions for 13 yards.

RECEIVERS: The Cowboys haven’t really missed Terry Glenn too much at this point thanks to an amazing start for Terrell Owens. Owens has destroyed Chicago, to the tune of 41 receptions, more than 500 yards, and 5 scores, in the five games he has faced them. Unfortunately, Owens may not get much help against the Bears. Witten could be the key factor in the passing game, but the Cowboys may not be able to spare his blocking.
Terrell Owens: 6 receptions, 100 yards, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 3 receptions, 49 yards

SPECIAL TEAMS: Nick Folk is still perfect, at 10/10 on PATs and 4/4 on FG. Tyson Thompson is averaging 28.5 yards per kickoff return, Crayton is at 16 yards per punt return, and McBriar has 4 Inside the 20 compared to no touchbacks at this point. The problem is that Chicago has the best return man in the game. He returned a punt and a kickoff last week, only to see the kickoff return called back. Devin Hester is arguably the best return man ever to suit up, easily the best in years, so he must be contained. I’d rather put the ball in Grossman’s hands on a short field than let Hester cleanly field one kick.

DEFENSE: Dallas is currently in the bottom 10 in the NFL for points, total yards, and passing yards allowed. They looked better against Miami, but Miami doesn’t have much of an offense. Then again, neither does Chicago. Cedric Benson is averaging 3.3 yards per carry as the lead back and Rex Grossman has tossed three INTs to 1 TD this season. Dallas MUST get pressure on Grossman and must play the run tough on first down. Put the game on Grossman’s shoulders and watch him crumple. Every turnover the Cowboys can muster is going to be needed.
Defense: 2 INT, 2.25 Sacks

PREDICTION: Sagarin sees this differently than I do, but I think Dallas is going to take it. I don’t want to get ahead of myself, knowing that Dallas has beaten two unimpressive teams and Chicago’s lone loss was to a very good San Diego team. That having been said, Dallas has looked overpowering at times this season, something Chicago cannot do offensively. If Dallas wins the turnover game and does not allow a return for a TD, Dallas will win. I do think this is going to be one of the most entertaining games of the season.

Cowboys 24
Bears 21